The real numbers...

Just puttin the facts that are avail out.



Currently, there are nearly 17,000 people waiting for liver transplants in the United States, but only enough livers to perform about 6,300 transplants each year. Because of this organ shortage, more than 1,500 people die each year while waiting for a liver transplant.

Objective

To evaluate the long-term survival outcomes of a large cohort of liver transplant recipients and to identify static and changing factors that influenced these outcomes over time.

Summary Background Data

Liver transplantation has been accepted as a therapeutic option for patients with end-stage liver disease since 1983, with continual improvements in patient survival as a result of advances in immunosuppression and medical management, technical achievements, and improvements in procurement and preservation. Although many reports, including registry data, have delineated short-term factors that influence survival, few reports have examined factors that affect long-term survival after liver transplantation.

Methods

Four thousand consecutive patients who underwent liver transplantation between February 1981 and April 1998 were included in this analysis and were followed up to March 2000. The effect of donor and recipient age at the time of transplantation, recipient gender, diagnosis, and year of transplantation were compared. Rates of retransplantation, causes of retransplantation, and cause of death were also examined.

Results

The overall patient survival for the entire cohort was 59%; the actuarial 18-year survival was 48%. Patient survival was significantly better in children, in female recipients, and in patients who received transplants after 1990. The rates of retransplantation for acute or chronic rejection were significantly lower with tacrolimus-based immunosuppression. The risk of graft failure and death was relatively stable after the first year, with recurrence of disease, malignancies, and age-related complications being the major factors for loss.


Staying positive but also facing the facts.

although i think the 'results' numbers is higher, some where around 73% as of last year. If i remember during my search for information when all this started.


never mind i was going to do the math as to the actual odds but my brain is not working.. its late, i cant sleep and i'm hurtin again.